Actually, unemployment is much higher. Even the NY Times and others not known for economic accuracy have finally caught on to the U6 number which currently stands at 17.5%. And we’re nowhere close to the end of the economic massacre.
There is a simple reason why there will be no recovery now, or anytime in the near future. I have written previously that for the first time in over forty years we have actually consumed more capital than we’ve created. This entire year has seen a nation get measurably poorer. Our capital stock is lower than when the recession began. We are starting from a lower base point. A “recovery” if you can call it that, would get us back to the starting point.
And the truth is that that will take investment. And investment is plummeting. No wonder. What business, other than the government owned, would dare invest when the new taxes, regulations, and health care impositions are coming.
GDP “grew” in the third quarter. But GDP measures spending. If it were the case that we could simply spend our way to prosperity (and there are still those that believe such, amazingly) then we’d be already stimulated out of recession. But we’re nowhere near out.
Unemployment will increase, but we’ll never get the real number. No way dear leader and his minions will ever let that happen.