A little prediction about unemployment

The July numbers should be out soon, so I’ll hazard a prediction.  There will be somewhat positive news.

Unemployment will either go down, or up ever so slightly.  Pundits aplenty will proclaim the recession is on its last legs.  Etc.

Now, what gives me such forecasting wisdom?  Nothing really, except I do know that the stimulus was supposed to work, and by golly, it’s going to.  So, the numbers will have to show that it’s working, and by golly, they will.  Does that mean that Keynesian destruction, theft, looting, and printing money like mad will actually work?  Absolutely not.

It’s just that the “numbers” will show good news.  Hint, hint.  All the newsfolks will proclaim things are getting better.  And when they say things are getting better, than by golly, they are.  Remember how the O used the “fact” that every economist, regardless of political persuasion, argued in favor of a stimulus?  Remember the meme about if they say the stimulus will work, it will?  Well, if you just tel people that things are improving, then by golly, they must be.

Of course, underneath the veneer, the pain, the loss of wealth, the destruction, will be very real and very pronounced.  And it will continue for a long, long time.


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